CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2015-01-12T15:36:00-CME-001)

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2015 Jan 13 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels. Region 2257 (N08W75,
Eac/beta-gamma-delta) produced a pair of M-class flares in relatively
quick succession as it approached the western limb. The first flare, a
M5/2b flare, appeared to originate near the more southern trailer spots
at 13/0424 UTC, while the second, longer flare, a M4 flare at 13/0458
UTC, seemed to come from the more northern intermediate spots area. Both
flares were relatively impulsive, with a 290 pfu 10 cm radio burst being
the only associated radio signature with either flare. LASCO coronagraph
imagery was not available for the applicable time frame of the flare
activity, but will be analyzed when/if it becomes available to determine
if there were any associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs). This region
appeared to maintain its magnetic complexity as it rotated closer to the
Western limb.

Region 2255 (S15W72, Dao/beta-gamma) produced a couple of C-class
flares, including a C2/Sf at 12/1243 UTC and a C7/Sf at 12/1444 UTC.
Region 2260 (N10W40, Dao/beta) produced a C5/Sf at 12/1255 UTC, and
Region 2261 (S11E24, Hsx/alpha) produced a C3 flare at 12/1521 UTC. All
of these spot groups appeared to be relatively stable or exhibited signs
of slight decay during the period.

A CME associated with a filament eruption centered near S01E42 became
visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 12/1536 UTC. WSA Enlil analysis indicates
a possible glancing blow from this CME mid to late in the day on 15 Jan.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class flare 
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), and a slight chance for an X-class flare
(R3-Strong) for the forecast period (13-15 Jan) as Regions 2255, 2257,
and 2259 (S15E06, Eko/beta-gamma) maintain their increased magnetic
complexity.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may reach
high levels during the forecast period (13-15 Jan), but is expected to
be mostly at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor) barring
significant flare activity.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft indicated mostly stable
conditions. Solar wind speed averaged about 410 km/s with isolated peaks
near 490 km/s. Phi was predominately in a positive (away) sector, Bt
remained steady near 7 nT, and the Bz component of the IMF was mostly
variable between +/-6 nT through the period.

.Forecast...
A slight enhancement in solar wind conditions is expected for the
remainder of 13 Jan as weakening, positive polarity coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS) effects wane. Ambient conditions are expected on
day two (14 Jan). Late on day three (15 Jan), the solar wind environment
is expected to become slightly disturbed with the expected arrival of
the glancing blow from the 12 Jan CME.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to continue on day one (13
Jan). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day two (14 Jan) before
becoming enhanced again as a glancing blow from the 12 Jan CME arrives
at Earth late on day three (15 Jan).

--
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2015 Jan 13 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 13-Jan 15 2015 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 13-Jan 15 2015

            Jan 13     Jan 14     Jan 15
00-03UT        2          2          2     
03-06UT        2          1          1     
06-09UT        1          1          1     
09-12UT        2          1          2     
12-15UT        2          1          2     
15-18UT        2          1          3     
18-21UT        2          2          3     
21-00UT        3          2          3     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy